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4. Conclusions
Summarizing the main results of this paper, let us recall
especially the following:
- we developed a new, purely numerical procedure for the
computation of ``synthetic'' proper elements of asteroids, which
consists in: (i) numerical integration of asteroid orbits in the
framework of a realistic dynamical model, (ii) online digital
filtering of the short-periodic effects, (iii) Fourier analysis to
remove main forced terms and find proper modes with given
arguments, and (iv) checking the accuracy by means of running box
tests;
- by means of this theory, we produced a new set of accurate
proper elements and frequencies for 10,256 outer main belt asteroids
between 2.5 and 4.0 AU, combining outputs from the 2 Myr
integration and from an extended 10 Myr integration, to which we
subjected objects with proper elements/frequencies poorly determined
in the shorter run;
- for each integrated body we provide an individual estimate of
the accuracy of the results in terms of the standard deviations and
maximum excursions, as well as an estimate of the maximum Lyapunov
Characteristic Exponent; these data enabled us to conduct a
comprehensive, yet straightforward statistical analysis of the
results, and provided us with a sort of ``dynamical portrait'' of the
outer main belt as a whole;
- we achieved an average improvement of the accuracy of new
proper elements with respect to previously available ones, computed by
means of our analytical theory, by more than a factor of 3. In terms
of the relative velocities at breakup this means that the typical
accuracy is of the order of
m/s.
- such a high accuracy of proper elements opens the possibility
to study the individual families, their internal structure, boundaries
and velocity fields, as well as the phenomena of chaotic diffusion,
leakage of the members from the families, etc. In this respect, we
offered few examples, including leakage along the resonant lines from
the Koronis, Eos and Themis families;
- the availability of individual measures of chaotic
behavior for each asteroid provides a basis to study the dynamical
structure of the entire region, from the point of view of the
long-term stability of motion, e.g., in the Nekoroshev sense.
We would like to emphasize the implications of the availability of an
accuracy estimate for each individual asteroid. This means that also
the asteroids for which the proper elements are poor can be used in
the study of asteroid families, but the users of the proper elements
should take into account the uncertainty. The algorithm to do this has
not yet been developed, but it is clear that the uncertainty must
appear in the distances between sets of proper elements used
for the classification procedures.
It is obvious that the wealth of data we produced contains plenty of
information on the dynamics of the asteroids in the outer main belt,
on the stability of their motion, chaos, families, and many other
important topics. We plan in the next future to analyze some of these
problems. In addition, we intend to extend our analysis to the inner
part of the main belt (this will require inclusion of the terrestrial
planets in the model and much more complex and time consuming
integration/analysis), and to resonant asteroids such as Hildas and
Trojans (with appropriately defined proper parameters).
On the contrary, we do not intend to consider Near-Earth objects
(NEO's) in the framework of this project, as these have to be
handled in a very different way (Gronchi and Milani [2000]).
Acknowledgements: We are grateful to M. Carpino for his kind
assistance with the chapter on digital filtering, and to A. Lemaitre
for reviewing the manuscript and suggesting several improvements. This
research has been supported through the grants by the Italian Space
Agency (ASI), by the Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Yugoslav
Ministry of Environment, Science and Development, and by the Ministry
of Science and Technology of Serbia through the project 04M04
``Astrometrical, astrodynamical and astrophysical investigations''.
Next: Bibliography
Up: Synthetic proper elementsfor outer
Previous: 3.5 Families
Andrea Milani
2000-10-03